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Research Type: Publication

Time-Varying Risk Premia and Heterogeneous Labor Market Dynamics

with Maarten Meeuwis, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Jonathan Rothbaum. Conditionally Accepted at the American Economic Review. Updated October 2025

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Abstract

Using U.S. administrative data on worker earnings, we show that increases in risk premia lead to lower labor earnings, particularly for lower-paid workers. These declines are primarily driven by job separations. We build an equilibrium model of labor market search that quantitatively replicates the observed heterogeneity in labor market dynamics across worker earnings levels. Our findings underscore the role of time-varying risk premia as a key driver of labor market fluctuations and highlight the importance of both the job creation and the job destruction margins in understanding the heterogeneity in worker outcomes over the business cycle.

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Time-Varying Risk Premia and Heterogeneous Labor Market Dynamics
mkulwiec2025-11-24T20:35:07+00:00
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