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Research Type: Working Paper

Risk Premia, Limited Firm Insurance, and Heterogeneous Earnings Risk

with Maarten Meeuwis and Dimitris Papanikolaou. Updated March 2026

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Abstract

We study how financial conditions shape labor income risk through endogenous firm insurance, job creation, and job destruction. We develop a directed search model with dynamic wage contracts, two-sided limited commitment, and time-varying risk premia where two forces govern the optimal contract: an insurance motive that smooths wages and a retention motive that deters poaching. When risk premia rise, limited commitment constraints tighten and insurance erodes—especially for low-wage workers near the separation margin—generating state-dependent labor income risk. Using U.S. administrative data, we document consistent evidence: the pass-through of firm productivity shocks to worker earnings rises when risk premia are elevated, concentrated among lower-paid workers and operating through job destruction. The calibrated model matches labor market dynamics, asset prices, and the heterogeneous pass-through of firm shocks. Beyond these targeted moments, it generates realistic variation in non-Gaussian earnings dynamics across workers and over time, sizable welfare losses from idiosyncratic risk, depressed human capital valuations, and large welfare gains from state-contingent policies.

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Risk Premia, Limited Firm Insurance, and Heterogeneous Earnings Risk
Lawrence Schmidt2026-03-17T18:53:41+00:00
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