Skip to content
Avada SEO
  • Home
  • About Me
  • Curriculum Vitae
  • My Research
    • All Research
    • Working Papers
    • Publications
    • Videos
Contact Me

Research Type: Working Paper

Rising Income Risk at the Top

with J. Carter Braxton, Kyle Herkenhoff, Chengdai Huang, Michael Nattinger, and Jonathan Rothbaum

SHARE IT!

Abstract

We document an increase in U.S. income risk from 1969 to 2019 using newly digitized IRS tax returns, distinguishing permanent from transitory risk. Since the 1970s, permanent income risk increased across the distribution, but most sharply among high earners, rising nearly 70% among the top 5%. We show that, even among top earners, large negative income shocks strongly predict financial distress and higher income risk is linked with higher savings. In a quantitative life-cycle model, rising income risk concentrated at the top lowers the risk-free rate by 0.7%, increases wealth inequality, and contributes to the "savings glut of the rich."

Read Working Paper
Rising Income Risk at the Top
Lawrence Schmidt2026-08-17T22:29:26+00:00
  • Home
  • About Me
  • Research
  • Contact

© Copyright 2026 | All Rights Reserved | Privacy | Website Designer

Page load link
Go to Top